Marathon training summary
Tomorrow is race day!
To be honest, I’m not very excited. I was very excited a few weeks ago, when I was feeling strong. Currently I’m mostly feeling weak, that I’ve fallen into the trap that I can do something I cannot, demotivated by training hiatus and hurting knee. I’m afraid that I will not be able to finish, either because of my knee or because its too hard. I will find it humiliating – that I thought I was something I was not.
Schedule adherence
Its pretty obvious I failed to follow the plan. It started out well, but the injury made me fall short. The plan was to run 781 km in 20 weeks, I ended up with 636 km. 80% of the target distance. The longest planned run was 30 km and I managed 28 km.
That said, I’m still happy that I did the training and that the part that failed me was an injury, not lazyness.
_1-20.png "Graph of the
total distance I'm expected to have run each week. Over the course until the
famous taper I will run more and more each week. Part of that being the long
distance workout. It falls off plan dramatically the last four weeks.")
The total distance I’m expected to have run each week.
_1-20.png "Graph of the
longest distance (in a single workout) I'm expected to run each week. Each week
I run a long distance workout, that will stretch longer and longer.")
The longest single distance each week I’m expected to run.
Estimate adjustments
Going back to Chances of success we can update the prevalence. I’m rather certain I will start tomorrow. (I can, of course, still be hit by a bus, but it feels unlikely) Its quite a bit difference between 2022 (95 %) and 2023 (88 %), but given the forecast (up to 27 °C) I’ll go with 85 %.
- Fitness compared to failed runs in prevalence (+0%)
- I never met someone, so I’ll just have to leave it at 0.
- Injuries (-10%)
- The knee feels alright. Its still my biggest fear, but it has been OK.
- Forecast (-5%)
- The forecast says 27 °C as peak temperature, which will be tough.
I think its a 70% chance I’ll finish the race tomorrow.